Global Warming Did the Unthinkable
Robert Hunziker
Jungfraujoch’s foreboding temperatures this September at the top of the world in Switzerland at 2.25 miles altitude alarmed glaciologists.
If anybody has lingering doubts about global warming’s strength of power to directly impact Earth’s ecosystems, think again. Antarctica, at the bottom of the world, experienced record high temperatures during its winter, as record high temperatures were also recorded at the top of the world in the Swiss Alps, where it’s always icy cold. As it happened, both the top and the bottom of the world hit record high temperatures, simultaneously, give or take a few days. There’s no known record of this ever happening before.
It’s proof positive that global warming is powerfully impacting the entire planet, simultaneously, and it’s happening horrifyingly fast! Too fast to justify petty, phony claims amongst some Americans, with a voice, that global warming’s nothing more than “natural events, the climate always changes, not to worry, blah, blah, blah!” Oh, please, grow up!
But maybe people should be in the streets demonstrating to pull out all the stops to prevent the inevitable, which is self-advertised in full living descriptive color as both ends of the planet go off course in ballistic fashion within several days of each other. The upshot is global warming (heat) has become Top Dog of the Earth System, pushing aside Goldilocks’ not-too-hot-not-too-cold tenure over the past several thousand years of the Holocene Era. The problem: Goldilocks was a sweetheart. But global warming is a mean-spirited bully, without heart.
Jungfraujoch is the tallest SwissMetNet station in Switzerland at 11,715 feet. Temperatures above 0° Celsius (32°F) for eight straight days in the month of September shocked glaciologists. That had never happened before in its 90-year history of official recordings.
The Jungfraujoch environment, according to its web page: “Icy air sweeps your face, snow crunches underfoot, and the panorama almost takes your breath away: on one side the view of the Swiss Mittelland towards the Vosges, on the other the Aletsch Glacier, lined with four thousand metre peaks. Standing on the Jungfraujoch 3,454 metres above sea level, you can feel it with your first step: this is a different world.”
Glaciologists say this new zero-degree record at extreme altitude is an ominous sign. Of serious concern, Switzerland has ~1,500 ice giants that don’t fancy a lot of heat. Those ice giants have faithfully served as the world’s most trustworthy water towers ever since humans first huddled in caves during the Stone Age a couple million years ago. Now, those wondrous glaciers are at risk of meltdown within only one century after a couple million years of steady work.
Not only did Jungfraujoch register 8-straight days over zero, but at the higher altitude of 5,298 metres Swiss MeteoSwiss reported record temperatures over the zero-degree limit.
“The zero-degree limit is a key meteorological indicator particularly in mountainous regions, as it ‘affects vegetation, the snow line and the water cycle and so has considerable impact on the habitats of humans, animals, and plants alike.” (Source: “Climate Records tumble as Switzerland Swelters in Heatwave”, Swissinfo.ch, August 22, 2023)
Swiss glaciers have lost one-third of ice volume in only 20 years. The next twenty could be crucial. According to Daniel Farinotti, glaciologist at ETH Zurich: “With a zero-degree isotherm far above 5,000 metres, all glaciers in the Alps are exposed to melt — up to their highest altitudes. Such events are rare and detrimental to the glacier’s health… if such conditions persist in the longer-term, glaciers are set to be lost irreversibly.” (Ibid.)
“Since the pre-industrial era, the temperature in Switzerland has increased by almost 2° Celsius, well above the global average. At this rate, half of the 1,500 Alpine glaciers – including the majestic Aletsch glacier, a UNESCO heritage site — will disappear in the next 30 years. And if nothing is done to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, all glaciers in Switzerland and Europe risk melting almost completely by the end of the century.” (Source: “Why Melting Glaciers Affect Us All”, Swissinfo.ch, October 11, 2022)
All of which is a good primer on what to expect if the world average hits 1.5°C and then 2°C, both of which look doable based upon the rapidity of greenhouse gas emissions, for example, CO2 and methane both setting new world records in July 2023.
And it’s also instructive to note, the world is not uniform, e.g., according to Copernicus Climate Change Service: Extreme Heat, Widespread Drought Typify European Climate in 2022, April 20, 2023: “The C35 data show that the average temperature for Europe for the latest 5-year period was around 2.2°C above the pre-industrial era (1850-1900). In 2022 all hell broke out through0ut the EU with water deliveries by truck to 100 thirsty communities in France/Italy and major riverway barges sputtering in mud. It was an “end of the world” type of experience that they muddled through. Of special concern, 75% of Spain’s land risks desertification because of global warming’s severe drought.
Glaciers worldwide are being hit, getting thinner and thinner in the Himalayas and the Andes where hundreds of millions of people depend upon glaciers for hydro power, irrigation, and drinking water. The situation in Europe is horribly problematic as the water flow of major commercial rivers like the Rhône, Rhine, Danube, and Po decrease, especially in summer months because of severe drought that hammered the EU. This has already, at times, seriously impaired commercial barge traffic in Europe, and lo and behold, nuclear power plants are targets of global warming. France’s 56 nuclear reactors were impacted within the past two years. Marine life as well as nuclear reactors depend upon a constant flow of cold water for existence. However, when global warming makes life in an ecosystem nearly impossible, marine life moves, reactors cannot.
A new report on Himalayan glacier loss shows a melt rate 65% faster from 2010 t0 2020 than in the prior decade, 2000-10. That’s big-time acceleration for enormous chunks of ice. That finding adds to “a growing body of evidence that the consequences of climate change are speeding up, and that some changes will be irreversible.” (Source: Snow and Ice in the Hindu Kush Himalaya Are Fast Disappearing, with Grave Implications for People and Nature, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, icimod.org, 2023)
The Hindu Kush Himalaya provides freshwater for 2 billion people. At current melt rates, almost all of the glacial volume will be gone this century.
Peak Water
Researchers say the mountain glacier systems will reach a point by 2050 when the glaciers have shrunk so much that the meltwater starts dwindling. It’s called a turning point “peak water.”
Meanwhile, melting glaciers spur natural disasters of epic proportions, cascading disasters of flooding and huge landslides like sudden shocks to the system, like earthquake events. Furthermore, there is already evidence of loss of biodiversity habitat, especially butterflies have gone extinct in the Hindu Kush Himalaya. Frogs and other amphibians are on the short list to go next. Scientists expect a quarter of plants and animals to be “wiped out” over the coming decades with the Indian segment of the Himalayan mountains hit extremely hard. (Source: Sunita Chaudhary, ecosystems researcher, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development).
As previously mentioned, Antarctica has joined the “it’s never happened before” party. The ice continent, as large as the U.S. and Mexico combined, is the coldest continent on Earth with a mean annual interior temperature of -71F. However, in the dead of winter, the Antarctic Peninsula, an 800-mile extension of the Antarctic continent, temperatures hit 32°F (Source: “It’s Even Hot in Antarctica, Where it’s Winter”, Vox, July 13, 2023). Which happened shortly before zero C at Jungfraujoch, as the top of the world and the bottom of the world coincided in extreme once-in-a-lifetime events, which researchers believe may become a trend, thereby losing the once-in-a-lifetime status, with the ramifications best not discussed herein. They’re too extensive and exhausting!
By now, it has become obvious that Earth’s climate system is askew, out of balance, and rapidly changing the face of the planet. Some knowledgeable people believe the best course of action is to learn to adapt to this rapidly changing environment because it does not appear that fossil fuel emissions are going anywhere but up, up, up, like they have for decades, higher every year, but for various legit reasons, do not count on CO2 capture/sequestration (CCS) or direct air capture (DAC) to bail us out of a worldwide heat jam, in part, because the scale is way beyond humongous, meaning the problem is as big as the planet is large, and that’s really, really big. Meanwhile, emissions continue to feed into more destructive global warming events, testing the mettle of humans, as fossil fuel emissions (the heart and soul of global warming) increasingly choke a planet that’s already sputtering.
COP28
All of which is supposed to be discussed amongst the nations of the world at the upcoming COP28 (UN Climate Change Conference) to be held in Dubai, November 30 – December 12, 2023, but there are serious reservations about the venue and the host and the participants as expressed in a letter sent by Freedom Forward and signed by 200 organizations: 200+ Organizations Call on Governments to Address UAE Human Rights Abuses Ahead of COP28 Climate Negotiations with the subtitle: “Letter to COP28 participating Governments Regarding United Arab Emirates (UAE) Human Rights Violations and Climate Concerns”, September 13, 2023.
The opening paragraph: “We write as a global network of organizations with grave human rights concerns regarding the government of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) host of the 2023 Cop28 to be held by the rulers of a repressive petrostate, and overseen by an oil executive, is reckless, represents a blatant conflict of interest, and threatens the legitimacy of the whole process.”
Meanwhile, the history of UN meetings to fix the planet is not encouraging: For example, in 2015, 193 countries agreed to UN Sustainable Development Goals, aka: Global Goals. As of August 2023, after 8 years of dalliance, not one of the goals looks set to be achieved. (Nature, 9/12/2023).
As a result of the failure of sustainable development goals and for that matter, any and all such goals, a new research report indicates that Earth’s life support systems have been so damaged that the planet is “well outside the safe operating space for humanity.” To come back to a safe space, two key actions are required: (1) stop fossil fuel burning (2) end destructive farming. (Source: “Earth Beyond Six of Nine Planetary Boundaries”, Science Advances, Sept. 13, 2023)
Alas, like the UN Sustainable Development Goals, Paris ’15 climate goals to achieve net zero have mostly bombed.
COP28/Dubai is weeks away. They expect a record turnout of up to 80,000 participants, claiming: “COP28 is poised to shape the course of international climate action.” Hmm.
(Robert Hunziker is a freelance writer and environmental journalist whose articles have been translated into foreign languages and appeared in over 50 journals, magazines, and sites worldwide. Courtesy: CounterPunch.)
Worldwide, 41% of Amphibians are Threatened with Extinction
Lindsay Renick Mayer and Devin Murphy
Habitat destruction and disease are both well-documented causes of the decline of amphibians—among the most threatened animals on the planet—but a new paper analyzing two decades’ worth of data from around the world has found that climate change is emerging as one of the biggest threats to frogs, salamanders, and caecilians. The study was published today in the scientific journal Nature.
The study, “Ongoing declines for the world’s amphibians in the face of emerging threats,” is based on the second global amphibian assessment, coordinated by the Amphibian Red List Authority, which is a branch of the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s Species Survival Commission’s Amphibian Specialist Group, hosted and managed by Re:wild.
The assessment evaluated the extinction risk of more than 8,000 amphibian species from all over the world, including 2,286 species evaluated for the first time. More than 1,000 experts across the globe contributed their data and expertise, which found that two out of every five amphibians are threatened with extinction. These data will be published on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species.
Between 2004 and 2022, a few critical threats have pushed more than 300 amphibians closer to extinction, according to the study. Climate change was the primary threat for 39% of these species. This number is expected to rise as better data and projections on species’ responses to climate change become available. Climate change is especially concerning for amphibians in large part because they are particularly sensitive to changes in their environment.
“As humans drive changes in the climate and to habitats, amphibians are becoming climate captives, unable to move very far to escape the climate change-induced increase in frequency and intensity of extreme heat, wildfires, drought and hurricanes,” said Jennifer Luedtke Swandby, Re:wild manager of species partnerships, Red List Authority coordinator of the IUCN SSC Amphibian Specialist Group, and one of the lead authors of the study. “Our study shows that we cannot continue to underestimate this threat. Protecting and restoring forests is critical not only to safeguarding biodiversity, but also to tackling climate change.”
Habitat destruction and degradation as the result of agriculture (including crops, livestock like cattle and livestock grazing, and silviculture), infrastructure development and other industries is still the most common threat, according to the paper. Habitat destruction and degradation affect 93% of all threatened amphibian species. Expanded habitat and corridor protection in the places most important for biodiversity is going to continue to be critical.
Disease caused by the chytrid fungus—which has decimated amphibian species in Latin America, Australia and the United States—and overexploitation also continue to cause amphibian declines. Habitat destruction and degradation, disease, and overexploitation are all threats that are exacerbated by the effects of climate change.
The study also found that three out of every five salamander species are threatened with extinction primarily as the result of habitat destruction and climate change, making salamanders the world’s most threatened group of amphibians. North America is home to the most biodiverse community of salamanders in the world, including a group of lungless salamanders abundant in the Appalachian Mountains of the eastern United States. Because of this, conservationists are concerned about a deadly salamander fungus that has been found in Asia and Europe, called Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal), entering the Americas.
“Bsal has not yet been detected in the United States, but because humans and other animals can introduce the fungus to new places, it may only be a matter of time before we see the second global amphibian disease pandemic,” said Dede Olson, a research ecologist with the USDA Forest Service, member of the IUCN SSC Amphibian Specialist Group, and co-author on the paper.
The Nature paper provides an update to the 2004 landmark paper that was based on the first global amphibian assessment for the IUCN Red List, which revealed the unfolding amphibian crisis for the first time and established a baseline for monitoring trends and measuring conservation impact. According to this new study, nearly 41% of all amphibian species that have been assessed are currently globally threatened, considered critically endangered, endangered or vulnerable. This is compared to 26.5% of mammals, 21.4% of reptiles and 12.9% of birds.
Four amphibian species were documented as having gone extinct since 2004—the Chiriquí harlequin toad (Atelopus chiriquiensis) from Costa Rica, the sharp snouted day frog (Taudactylus acutirostris) from Australia, Craugastor myllomyllon and the Jalpa false brook salamander (Pseudoeurycea exspectata), both from Guatemala. Twenty-seven additional critically endangered species are now considered possibly extinct, bringing the total to more than 160 critically endangered amphibians that are considered possibly extinct. The assessment also found that 120 species improved their Red List status since 1980. Of the 63 species that improved as the direct result of conservation action, most improved due to habitat protection and management.
“The history of amphibian conservation itself proves how vital this information is,” said Adam Sweidan, chair and co-founder of Synchronicity Earth. “If the IUCN Red List had been updated on a similar scale in the 1970s that it is today, we could have traced the sweeping amphibian disease pandemic 20 years before it devastated amphibian populations. It isn’t too late—we have this wealth of information, we have the Amphibian Conservation Action Plan, but plans and information are not enough. We need to act. We need to act fast.”
Conservationists will use the information from this study to help inform a global conservation action plan, to prioritize conservation actions at the global level, to seek additional resources, and to influence policy that can help reverse the negative trend for amphibians.
“Amphibians are disappearing faster than we can study them, but the list of reasons to protect them is long, including their role in medicine, pest control, alerting us to environmental conditions, and making the planet more beautiful,” said Kelsey Neam, Re:wild species priorities and metrics coordinator and one of the lead authors of the Nature paper. “And while our paper focuses on the effects of climate change on amphibians, the reverse is also critically important: that the protection and restoration of amphibians is a solution to the climate crisis because of their key role in keeping carbon-storing ecosystems healthy. As a global community it is time to invest in the future of amphibians, which is an investment in the future of our planet.”
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Executive Summary
STATE OF THE WORLD’S AMPHIBIANS
The Second Global Amphibian Assessment
Amphibians are incredibly diverse, occur in nearly every habitat, and span almost the entire planet. Many species have narrow habitat preferences and small distributions, often making them especially sensitive to the rapid environmental changes taking place worldwide. Amphibian populations can provide valuable insights into the overall health and ecological balance of an ecosystem.
Through the second Global Amphibian Assessment (GAA2), more than a decade of research on amphibians by over 1,000 experts has been compiled to assess the extinction risk of 8,011 species worldwide. The GAA2 follows on from the first GAA, completed in 2004, which illuminated the unfolding amphibian extinction crisis and established a baseline for monitoring trends and measuring conservation impact. Now, the GAA2 reveals that the conservation status of the world’s amphibians continues to deteriorate.
We now know that 41% of amphibians are globally threatened with extinction, making them the most threatened vertebrate group. Salamanders are particularly at risk, with 3 out of every 5 species threatened with extinction. The number of amphibian extinctions could be as high as 222, when considering the 37 confirmed extinctions and an additional 185 species with no known surviving population.
Habitat loss remains the most common threat to amphibians, affecting 93% of threatened species. Agricultural expansion continues to be the main cause of habitat loss and degradation, followed by timber and plant harvesting, and infrastructure development. Amphibians are also threatened by disease in many parts of the world. Over the past few decades, chytridiomycosis has had a devastating impact on amphibian populations, and the emergence of a new fungal pathogen in Europe that targets salamanders has raised fears of another epizootic. The effects of climate change are emerging as a concerning threat as amphibians are particularly sensitive to changes in their environment.
Amphibian species are not evenly distributed across the globe. They are predominantly clustered in tropical montane humid forests as well as on tropical islands. Islands with high endemism and extensive habitat loss, such as those in the Caribbean, dominate the list of 15 countries or territories with an extraordinarily high percentage of threatened species. The Neotropics, home to almost half of the world’s amphibians, is also the most highly threatened realm, with 48% of species at risk of extinction. Other large concentrations of threatened amphibians are found in western Cameroon and eastern Nigeria, the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania, Madagascar, the Western Ghats of India, Sri Lanka, and central and southern China.
Conservation needs to be massively scaled-up. Since 1980, the extinction risk of 63 species has been reduced due to conservation interventions, proving that conservation works. We must build on this momentum and significantly scale-up investment in amphibian conservation if we are to stop and reverse declines. Drawing on the results of the GAA2, this report provides guidance for conservation by identifying landscapes with disproportionately high numbers of threatened species, as well as the most highly threatened amphibian genera. It also highlights the need to protect globally important sites for amphibians, and the urgent necessity to better understand and find solutions to the problems that disease and climate change present. It is imperative that we now use this information to effectively conserve and restore the world’s amphibians.
(Lindsay Renick Mayer is Director of Communications, and Devin Murphy is Senior Communications Specialist, at Re:wild. Courtesy: Climate and Capitalism and Re:wild. Re:wild’s mission is to protect and restore the wild to build a thriving Earth where all life flourishes. Climate & Capitalism is an ecosocialist journal, edited by Ian Angus.)
