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Europe’s Governments Go All In for “Herd Immunity”

Peter Schwarz

At the end of last month, Denmark’s Social Democratic Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced a large-scale human experiment. On February 1, virtually all remaining coronavirus regulations were dropped—mandatory mask wearing, social distancing, verification of vaccination or test status. Large events are now also allowed again in Denmark, and bars and discos are allowed to fully open.

Frederiksen had already declared the pandemic over once before, in September last year. But at that time, the number of weekly infections was below 50 per 100,000 inhabitants. Now the seven-day incidence level is more than 100 times higher at 5,300, making Denmark the European frontrunner. One in 10 inhabitants is currently infected.

Nevertheless, the government has abolished all protective measures. This is like opening the dams that were built against catastrophic flooding during continuous rain. The Danish government is deliberately betting on infecting the country’s 5.8 million residents in the shortest possible time, even if many will pay for it with their lives or permanent damage to their health. Particularly at risk are children under age five, for whom there is no vaccine protection.

Millions across Europe responded to Frederiksen’s provocative move with horror. Newspaper editors and government offices, on the other hand, rejoiced. “Herd immunity,” meaning in practice the deliberate mass infection of the population, is now the official policy of every European government. What was only openly advocated in Stockholm and London at the beginning of the pandemic now represents the European consensus. At most, there are only differences in the speed with which this goal is to be achieved.

Britain, Austria, Spain, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Switzerland have already largely abolished previous restrictions and rules. France and Germany are on their way.

In the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson is going by the motto “hear nothing, see nothing, say nothing.” He has announced not only the abolition of all coronavirus regulations still in force, but also of the obligation to report coronavirus-related deaths. Even the quarantine obligation for those infected is up for discussion.

In Spain, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez had already declared in mid-January that the pandemic would be treated like influenza in future. Testing and contact tracing have been drastically reduced, and the infection figures are being calculated using new counting methods.

On February 1, Norway abolished all existing restrictions except for the requirement to wear a mask and the one metre distance rule. “We will have to live with high infection numbers, and we can live with high infection numbers,” was the reason given by Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre.

The government of the Netherlands announced a relaxation of coronavirus protection measures on January 26, despite record infection numbers. Restaurants, theatres, cinemas, museums, and football stadiums will be allowed to reopen.

Switzerland, whose rules were always loose anyway, has abolished the requirement to work from home and quarantining for contacts of those infected. Infected persons must now only quarantine for five days. The requirement to provide a certificate of vaccination status to enter restaurants and events and the obligation to wear a mask at work and in public places are to be dropped in mid-February.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron is gradually lifting contact and mask restrictions, even though more than 320,000 people are still becoming infected every day.

Germany has responded to the steep rise in infections by restricting testing so that the actual numbers can no longer be tracked, and contacts can no longer take sick leave. Although schools have been proven to be major breeding grounds for the virus, they remain open. It is only a matter of weeks before the last protective measures will fall there, too.

Yet coronavirus is ravaging Europe like never before. Last week alone, around 12 million new infections were registered—more than since the pandemic began. There were 21,500 Europeans who died from COVID-19 last week, and more than 1.6 million have died since the beginning of the pandemic, not counting the number of unreported cases. The World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates that 60 percent of all Europeans will be infected with the highly contagious Omicron variant by mid-March.

Amid the highest wave of the pandemic, governments are justifying their homicidal herd immunity policies with the lie that a combination of vaccination, immunisation through infection and the milder nature of the Omicron variant will make the pandemic manageable.

Even experts who know better have subscribed to this line of argument, under immense political pressure. For example, at a press conference in Copenhagen, Hans Kluge, WHO Director for Europe, declared that Omicron gave Europe a unique chance to get the spread of the virus under control and ushered in an “end game” of the pandemic.

The large number of vaccinations and natural immunisation acquired through infection with Omicron, the approaching end of winter, and the reduced severity of the variant gave Europe the prospect of a possible “ceasefire” in the fight against the virus, Kluge said. After the wave subsides, there would be global immunity—at least “for a few weeks and months.”

Kluge cautioned, however, that vaccination must continue, vulnerable people must be protected, emerging variants must be monitored, and the health system must be prepared for possible future waves. The coronavirus had “surprised us more than once, so we have to be very careful,” he said. Nevertheless, his statements irresponsibly downplay the enormous dangers of the herd immunity strategy.

Its costs are unbearably high. Already 3,000 people are dying every day in Europe, and this number will continue to rise due to the steep increase in infections and low vaccination rates in many countries. For example, only 74 percent of the population in Germany and only 76 percent in France are fully vaccinated, compared to 81 percent in Denmark.

Moreover, the pandemic can only be fought internationally. The herd immunity strategy in Europe and the US, where the Biden administration is pursuing the same course, will inevitably lead to an increase in infections on other continents, where even fewer people are vaccinated. This will also increase the risk of more infectious and deadly variants developing that are resistant to the existing vaccines.

Also completely ignored is the danger that large sections of the population will suffer from the results of the disease for life. “A frightening prognosis is being made: Long Covid threatens to become a widespread disease,” writes the Frankfurter Allgemeine (FAZ) in a detailed article on the research results to date.

Due to the lack of uniform disease criteria and recording methods, there are no comprehensive figures yet, but the results of existing studies into Long COVID are alarming. The number of people infected with the coronavirus who still experience symptoms months later, even if the original illness is mild, ranges from 2 to 40 percent, depending on the criteria and the study. The most frequent symptom is fatigue. In addition, there is shortness of breath, concentration problems, a general reduction in performance, heart palpitations, and loss of the sense of taste and smell.

“While Covid-19 is mainly dangerous for the elderly and immunocompromised patients,” FAZ summarises the research results, “Long Covid is a problem for many young adults and children.” Although many links are still unclear, evidence is accumulating that COVID causes sustained damage to the vascular system. “This is another reason why Covid-19 is more than a cold, it is a systemic disease,” concludes FAZ.

The danger that young people and children will suffer lifelong damage to their health is therefore extremely high.

In contrast to Kluge, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has explicitly warned of the consequences of the herd immunity policy. On January 24, at the WHO Executive Board meeting, he said, “Learning to live with COVID cannot mean that we give this virus a free ride. It cannot mean that we accept almost 50,000 deaths a week from a preventable and treatable disease. It cannot mean that we accept an unacceptable burden on our health systems, when every day, exhausted health workers go once again to the front line. It cannot mean that we ignore the consequences of Long COVID, which we don’t yet fully understand. It cannot mean that we gamble on a virus whose evolution we cannot control, nor predict.

“There are different scenarios for how the pandemic could play out, and how the acute phase could end—but it is dangerous to assume that Omicron will be the last variant, or that we are in the endgame,” he added.

There is no scientific justification for the murderous herd immunity strategy. It has exclusively political motivations. To keep the economy running and profits flowing, the ruling class is willing to sacrifice countless lives and the health of the next generation.

Public health care is one of the greatest social achievements of the 19th century. State hygiene measures and broad access to medical care ensured, for the first time, that a large section of the population reached an age of 60, 70 and more.

All this is being called into question today. Capitalist society is deeply sick. While Amazon founder Jeff Bezos builds himself a yacht for 430 million euros and plans to have a historic bridge in Rotterdam demolished to launch it at sea, there is no money for protecting the lives of millions.

All parties that defend capitalism—from the nominally left to the right—support herd immunity policies. The hope that they can be persuaded to change course through petitions or pressure is illusory.

Only an independent movement of the international working class, linking resistance to the policies of deliberate mass infection with the struggle against exploitation, social inequality, the dismantling of democracy and war, can stop this murderous policy.

The overwhelming majority of the population is appalled and outraged by the herd immunity strategy. What is needed is the building of a party that represents their interests and arms them with a socialist perspective—the International Committee of the Fourth International and its sections, the Socialist Equality Parties.

(Courtesy: World Socialist Web Site.)

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Vastly Unequal US has World’s Highest Covid Death Toll – It’s No Coincidence

Melody Schreiber

The US has suffered 900,000 deaths from Covid-19, the highest figure of any nation. The death toll would be equivalent to the 15th most populous city in the country, more than San Francisco, Washington DC or Boston – a city of ghosts with its population swelling each day.

It’s not just the total numbers. America also has the highest death rate of any wealthy country, with half of the deaths occurring after vaccines became available.

The US has never responded to the Covid pandemic in a sustained, proactive way as a unified nation. Instead, much of the responsibility – and blame – has fallen on individuals. In a country with vast income inequality, poor health and sharp political divides, the results have been grim.

“All of those factors put people at higher risk of Covid death,” said Megan Ranney, emergency physician and academic dean of public health at Brown University.

Vaccinations, in particular, have lagged, especially compared with other wealthy countries. The health system was already precarious when it began to be battered by wave after wave of Covid.

Other countries with similarly high death tolls earlier in the pandemic have seen fewer fatalities from the Omicron variant – yet in the US, the Omicron death toll is surpassing the Delta wave of autumn 2021. Last month was one of the deadliest of the entire pandemic.

Meanwhile, American leaders are attempting to mimic other countries’ return to normal, despite a markedly different situation with hospitalizations and deaths – which, every day, nearly reach the losses from the September 11 terrorist attacks.

“The first and most obvious [issue] is our vaccination and booster rate,” said Ranney. “Our rate of vaccination, period, is lower than in most other high-income countries, and our booster rate is lower as well. And as ample CDC data proves, vaccines and boosters are tremendously effective at protecting against death, even with Omicron.”

Less than two-thirds – about 64% – of Americans are vaccinated, and only 48% of those are boosted, despite ample vaccine supply.

“For a country which has a vaccines-only strategy, we’re not very good at vaccination,” said William Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health and co-director of the Center on Communicable Disease Dynamics. “There are large parts of the country which are not vaccinated to higher levels … and that’s made worse by the fact that with Omicron, to get really good protection, you also need to be boosted.”

Problems with access to vaccines linger, too. Better-off people have had plenty of opportunities to be vaccinated, but those in poorer households still struggle to get vaccines – and time off to recover from any side effects. Some 15% to 20% of unvaccinated Americans say they are still interested in getting their shots, Hanage said – they simply haven’t been able to yet.

Meanwhile, poorer unvaccinated people also face a “double whammy” because they are also more likely to contract Covid, he said.

“You have people who are more likely to be exposed to the virus, who are less likely to receive vaccines, who are less likely to be able to take steps to protect themselves even with vaccination, because they’re scared of missing a paycheck, they’re scared of taking a day off, their employer won’t let them.”

The US is the most economically unequal of G7 countries, and it offers no guaranteed sick leave.

“The absence of paid sick leave is an absolute scandal,” Hanage said. “If you care about working people, give them sick leave. That sick leave will enable them to avoid infecting others, it will enable them to help protect workplaces – it’s just a no-brainer.”

Another reason for the disparate outcomes in the US is the fractured healthcare system. People who lack health insurance tend to wait longer to be seen by physicians, making worse outcomes more likely. They are also more likely to have pre-existing health conditions that put them at greater risk for Covid.

“There are lots and lots of ways in which societal inequities are mirrored and magnified in our death rates,” Ranney said. “With Covid, there is now no longer any way to cover up all of these underlying problems, and the impact of those problems got magnified because many of the social supports which allowed us to muddle through were no longer present.”

The US also has higher rates of death from opioids and gun violence, and lower rates of life expectancy, than similar countries. Hospital overcrowding is also higher in the US than other countries, Ranney said.

“Overcrowding correlates with poor outcomes for multiple types of diseases and injuries,” she said. “And there’s been preliminary data that people are more likely to die of Covid when there’s a higher number of Covid patients in the hospital or when ICUs [intensive care units] are overwhelmed.”

One predictor of Covid deaths by country is trust in government, according to a recent report in the Lancet: countries with lower levels of trust in government had higher rates of cases and deaths.

“If you don’t trust the government, you’re less likely to follow suggestions or mandates around lockdowns, early on, or masks. And then the lack of trust also impairs governments’ ability to do important things like masking or testing or good data acquisition,” Ranney said.

Only 25 US states share reliable data on cases by age, which makes it difficult to know how many children are sick, for instance. “And then that hurts our ability to put data-driven public health measures in place, and then people don’t follow the public health measures, because they don’t trust them. And it becomes this circular problem,” Ranney said.

National leaders in the US are unable to mandate precautions, like masks or vaccines, for the entire country, with responsibilities largely falling instead to state and local leaders.

Yet leaders have seen their ability to act during health emergencies limited even more during the pandemic, with more than half of US states introducing new limits on public health powers.

“There is a constituency within the US that is beginning to look at this and see this opportunity,” Hanage said. “A lot of that comes down to: how much illness and death will people accept?”

Those who are interested in limiting public health regulations “are looking at this and thinking, whoa, a significant fraction of the population is fine with 900,000 deaths”.

There is still time to change course and prevent future losses, Ranney said.

“I do think that there’s a chance to create a better future,” she said, noting that leaders can “use this moment to build up the infrastructure that is needed, so if and when there is another variant or some other acute epidemic, we have the system in place to address it”.

But the US reaction to the pandemic is also compounded by an American sense of exceptionalism.

“It’s a very American idea to suggest that reality is what you want it to be. You can be whoever you want to be. Reality is a real thing, though. The virus doesn’t care who you are,” Hanage said. “It only cares that it can infect you.”

(Courtesy: The Guardian.)

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End of COVID-19 Hospital Death Reporting Is “Incomprehensible,” Says US Health Official

Andre Damon

On Wednesday, the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) officially ended its system for hospitals to report COVID-19 deaths daily to the federal government, amid a worldwide campaign to reduce the reporting of COVID-19 deaths and cases.

The end of the hospital death reporting came as the official US death toll from COVID-19 approached 900,000, and at least 60,000 people died from COVID-19 in January.

The same day as the US federal government stopped collecting figures on hospital deaths, the UK government announced plans to end reporting of the UK’s COVID-19 death toll by Easter.

The move by HHS, which was quietly announced on January 6, received no coverage until Dr. Jorge A. Caballero brought it to public attention on January 14. A tweet reporting Caballero’s warnings by this reporter went viral, prompting thousands of people to state their opposition to the move.

The end of hospital death reporting has been met with a wall of silence in the media. But among health experts, there is broad opposition to this measure, which would slash the most up-to-date metrics for assessing the current state of COVID-19 deaths and hospital capacity.

The move is “incomprehensible,” one federal health official told the WSWS.

“It is the only consistent, reliable and actionable dataset at the federal level,” the official said. “Ninety-nine percent of hospitals report one hundred percent of the data every day.”

Responding to claims that the HHS data is duplicative of death data collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the official said, “deaths are reported by the counties/states but the process is very slow and many coroners are actually not wanting to cite COVID as the reason, while hospitals rely on diagnoses.” The official continued, “It is also timely as it is every day and many states have a delay anyway but now many are reporting less often.”

Prior to the ending of the HHS reporting system, there were two ways for COVID-19 deaths to be reported to the federal government.

The HHS system relied on direct reporting by hospitals, meaning that all deaths were reported by trained medical professionals on the basis of medical diagnoses. It was daily, timely and included a broad cross-section of relevant information.

With the end of this system, the only remaining means for the federal government to track COVID-19 deaths relies on the aggregation and reporting of death certificates on the state level. These statistics, which pass through America’s fragmented, archaic and politically manipulated system of coroners and medical examiners, are then aggregated by the CDC.

The office of coroner is a remnant of the Middle Ages, in which the officer’s primary responsibilities had to do with the collection of revenues for royal authorities. A 2009 National Academy of Sciences (NAS) report explained: “On behalf of the crown, the crowner [coroner] was responsible for inquests to confirm the identity of the deceased, determine the cause and manner of death, confiscate property, collect death duties, and investigate treasure troves.”

The report, commissioned by the US Department of Justice, stated that “more than 80 years ago, the [NAS] identified concerns regarding the lack of standardization in death investigations and called for the abolishment of the coroner’s office, noting that the office ‘has conclusively demonstrated its incapacity to perform the functions customarily required of it.’”

The 2009 review found that “About 36 percent of the population lives where minimal or no special training is required to conduct death investigations. Recently, an 18-year-old high school student was elected a deputy coroner in Indiana after completing a short training course.”

As the Economist recently warned, “Coroners reliant on voters who are skeptical about COVID have not been as scrupulous as their medical-examiner peers. One coroner in Missouri candidly told the press that he strikes COVID-19 from the death certificates at the request of the family of the deceased.”

Once the data goes through the coroner/medical examiner system, it will be aggregated by states, most of which do not report daily and are themselves moving rapidly to reduce the frequency of COVID-19 death reporting. Tennessee ended daily reporting in early January, and Pew reports that “experts expect other states to follow.”

The official added that the HHS dataset “is normalized to a specific hospital and can he compared to other data like capacity, number of admissions, ages of admissions, number in ICU, number of ventilated and a death count—not just for COVID but also influenza (which we have never had good insight into at this scale).”

The official said that the official explanation, that the ending of data aims to reduce “burdens” on the hospital system, is not believable, because the system is largely automated through the Electronic Medical Records (EMR) System.

Hospitals operate massive data infrastructure systems, with medical staff spending a substantial portion of their time entering data into these systems.

The HHS worked with major manufacturers of medical records software to automate the system, meaning that close to 85 percent of the data reporting was fully automated.

“The hospitals have been doing this for going on two years,” the official said. HHS “worked with all the major EMR vendors to automate the capture of this data.”

Last year, Alexis C. Madrigal, a co-founder of the COVID Tracking Project, writing in the Atlantic, called the HHS reporting system “America’s Most Reliable Pandemic Data,” writing, “The hospitalization data coming out of HHS are now the best and most granular publicly available data on the pandemic. This information has changed the response to the pandemic for the better.”

Explaining why the system was set up, the official said, “There was no hospital data at the federal level and even at many states. We had no idea who has capacity, who was in trouble, who had supply shortages, who was getting admissions so fast that they would need supplemental meds, who has staffing issues, etc. We also didn’t know anything about the people admitted in a timely manner, such as age.”

The ending of the HHS reporting system will likewise inflict collateral damage on the management of other diseases, including influenza. “The CDC has never really counted cases for things that a lot of people get like the flu,” the official said. “They get data from sentinel sites and then extrapolate what is happening.”

Stating that there existed a “correlation” between the calls for ending COVID-19 data reporting and the drive to make life with COVID-19 the “new normal,” the official warned, “I don’t know any scientists who want to have less data.”

(Courtesy: World Socialist Web Site.)