❈ ❈ ❈
As Snowfall and Rain Elude Himalayas in the Peak of Winter, Worries Mount
Nidhi Jamwal
Vikram Katoch is visibly worried: the vast valley of Lahaul-Spiti in the northern Indian state of Himachal Pradesh is almost snowless this January. “By now we should have had at least four to five feet of snow, but right now we have nothing,” he says. “It is a matter of grave concern because snowfall ensures our water security and provides water for irrigation and farming to local villagers.”
Katoch is vice president of the Save Lahaul Spiti Society, a non-profit organisation trying to protect this ecologically fragile valley from environmental degradation and the impacts of climate change.
Over 500 km north, the situation is no different in the skiing destination of Gulmarg, Kashmir. Despite the ongoing Chillai Kalan (Kashmir’s harshest, 40-day winter period) snow is missing from Gulmarg’s slopes.
On social media, on January 9, Omar Abdullah, the vice president of the Jammu Kashmir National Conference party, said: “I’ve never seen Gulmarg so dry in the winter … If we don’t get snow soon the summer is going to be miserable.”
On January 10, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) meteorologist Sonam Lotus confirmed large winter snowfall deficits across the northern regions of Ladakh, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. He added there is no likelihood of snow until January 25.
Where is the western disturbance?
A western disturbance is an extratropical storm that originates in the Mediterranean region. An area of reduced air pressure, this disturbance carries moisture from the Mediterranean and Caspian seas east, via the subtropical westerly jet stream. This brings rain and snow to Pakistan and northern India, which replenishes glaciers. These disturbances are therefore crucial for the region’s water security, farming and tourism.
According to Madhavan Rajeevan, a former secretary of India’s earth sciences ministry, both the intensity and frequency of western disturbances are decreasing: “The recent studies very clearly suggest that there is a decreasing trend in winter snow or winter precipitation over the region. This is related to the less-frequent passage of western disturbances.”
“The most important worry should be the future projections of WDs,” he said. “Climate models suggest a further decrease of about 10%-15% in the frequency of WDs by 2050 or so. It should really worry us.”
A July 2023 study, “The decline in western disturbance activity over northern India in recent decades”, assessed 39 western disturbance seasons between 1980 and 2019. It reported a declining trend in the frequency of these storms.
According to the report: “The combined mean frequency of strong and extreme WDs declined by as much as ~ 43%, contrary to the mean occurrences of feeble and moderate WDs, which rose by ~ 11% … The sharpest decline (~ 49%) was observed for the most intense WDs (strong and extreme), primarily explaining the decreasing WD precipitation intensity across the core WD zone.”
Similarly, a 2019 western disturbance study published by the American Meteorological Society concluded that: “The decline in WD frequency and intensity will cause a decrease in mean winter rainfall over Pakistan and northern India amounting to about 15% of the mean.”
“WDs are associated with the mid-latitude jet stream – strong westerly winds at around 12km-15km,” says Rajeevan. “Observations show this jet stream has moved north during the recent winters. It could be related to global warming (which shows everything moving poleward, including monsoons, tropical cyclones) and also Arctic Sea ice melting.”
Lower winter precipitation, higher summer rainfall
Another disturbing trend linked to western disturbances is their increasingly frequent occurrences during May, June and July. This trend is noted in the August 2023 preprint of a western disturbance analysis by Kieran Hunt, a meteorology research fellow at the UK’s University of Reading.
According to Hunt’s analysis: “WDs have been twice as common in June in the last 20 years than during the previous 50. This is attributed to delayed northward retreat of the subtropical jet, which historically has occurred before the onset of the summer monsoon.”
The preprint says its most important finding is the significant increase in monsoonal western disturbances, which means “catastrophic events like the 2013 Uttarakhand floods and the 2023 north India floods are becoming much more frequent”.
Snowless winters
Lotus is based in Leh, Ladakh, where snowless winters are becoming a huge concern. “It is mid-January, which is the peak winter season,” he says. “But it is unusually warm. This winter is the warmest winter in Leh in the past decade.”
According to data from the India Meteorological Department, December 2023 was an almost snowless month for most of northern India. Precipitation in both Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh was -79% of those levels typical in December. In the state of Himachal Pradesh it was -85% and in Uttarakhand it was -75%.
January has so far been worse, with Uttarakhand recording -99% of the typical precipitation during the first two weeks of this month. Meanwhile, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, and Ladakh have not received any precipitation.
Lotus says this is not the region’s first dry spell: “Analysis of the past 43 years of data shows that there have been years when snowfall has been lower than what has been received this winter.” For example, in 2016 and 2018 Leh did not receive snow during November and December. Gulmarg was similarly dry in 2016: snowfall during November and December amounted to 7.6cms, compared to 23cms in 2023.
Lotus is reluctant to make a direct connection between climate change and this year’s unusual snowfall in the Himalayas. What he deems indisputable, however, is that rising temperatures are making things worse. In 2023, the lowest minimum temperature recorded in Leh was -12.2 degrees Celsius, which is significantly warmer than previous years. Lotus says this combination of low snowfall and high temperatures will accelerate Himalayan glacial melt.
Impact on glaciers
The Third Pole spoke to Irfan Rashid, an assistant geoinformatics professor at the University of Kashmir, who specialises in Kashmir’s cryosphere. Rashid agrees with Lotus: “In the past two decades, we have had at least four snowless Chillai Kalans. Snowfall during the winter period is crucial as it feeds the glaciers which, during the summer months, slowly release water that rejuvenates springs, feeds the rivers and also provides water for irrigation.”
“People in the valley are already speculating about a drought this year, as it is the winter snowfall that sustains them through the year by providing them water to grow [rice] and apples,” adds Rashid.
The loss of glacier mass is a critical threat to the water security of the Himalayan region. “I have personally been studying the Drang Drung Glacier [in Ladakh] that feeds the Zanskar River,” says Rashid. “It has been receding at a rate of 50m per year since 2017.”
A threat to water security
Rajeevan agrees that the water security of the region could be affected if western disturbances and their associated snowfall decrease: “Water flowing into these rivers [the five rivers of the Indus Basin] due to the melting of snow is very important for water management over this area, for agriculture, power generation.”
He adds that the Indus Water Treaty, which manages river water sharing between India and Pakistan, could also be impacted; Rashid agrees that the lack of winter snowfall and receding glaciers could have a transboundary impact: “We need basin-wide, detailed studies for the same.”
Rashid says these changes also threaten more disasters in the region, such as the Chamoli disaster in February 2021, or the more recent South Lhonak Lake disaster in Sikkim.
“The Himalayan region – not just in India, but the entire Hindu Kush and Karakoram – has steep slopes that host snow or permafrost,” explains Rashid. “These are vulnerable slopes and as heat rises and there is a lack of sufficient snowfall, these areas are likely to become hotspots for disasters such as GLOFs.”
Some of these disasters are already evident. Uttarakhand has seen an enormous increase in forest fires, from 922 in 2002, to 41,600 in 2019. Climate change, which increases the chances of low rainfall in this region, is a critical driving factor. Uttarakhand’s forest fires usually happen between April and June, but this year they are already igniting.
Given the scope of these emerging challenges, Rashid believes the Indian government needs to urgently set up a national programme to establish what is happening to western disturbances. Armed with credible scientific data, Rashid says institutions can devise plans to handle this looming threat.
(Nidhi Jamwal is a journalist based in Mumbai. She reports on climate, environment, and rural issues. Courtesy: The Third Pole, a multilingual platform dedicated to promoting information and discussion about the Himalayan watershed and the rivers that originate there.)
❈ ❈ ❈
Kashmiris Look to Heaven, with Prayers and Hope, as Snow Stays Away Through Coldest Phase of Winter
Safwat Zargar
When Srinagar’s historic Jamia Masjid makes the news, it is usually for whether the authorities had granted permission for the congregational Friday prayers that week.
But the second Friday of January stood out as an exception.
After the Friday prayers on January 12, a huge congregation held special prayers in the mosque, seeking an end to an extended period of dry weather in the Kashmir Valley this winter.
The special prayer, known as Namaz-e-Istisqa, was held two days after Muttahida Majlis-e-Ulema, a conglomerate of religious bodies from different schools of thought in Jammu and Kashmir, appealed to the public to pray at “individual and collective levels for rain and respite from the harsh weather”.
In Kashmir, snowfall in winter is as anticipated as the monsoon is in mainland India. Not only is it essential to ensure the water supply in the Himalayan region, the economy of Kashmir – where 70% of the people associated with agriculture and its allied sectors for livelihood – depends heavily on a good winter.
That is why the absence of snowfall in picturesque locations such as Gulmarg and Pahalgam even towards the end of Chillai Kalan – the coldest 40-day period of the winter beginning December 21 – is more worrisome for locals than the dejected tourists. The lack of snow will also mean more extended power cuts for the people of Jammu and Kashmir during the blazing summer since there will be no water to power the generators.
Economics apart, snow is part of Kashmir’s identity, culture and lifestyle. Every winter, children yearn for those heavy flakes of white to try their hand at ice sculpting. It is an essential part of winter conversations: the discussions involve cutting paths through snow to buy bread in the morning, broken bones from having slipped on the ice, the missing administration that cannot clear the streets, cancelled exams, upturned trees and electricity poles.
This year, it has been eerily dry and dull. The winter is nowhere to be seen.
Though Kashmir has recorded dry winter spells before, the absence of snow or rainfall this winter is accompanied by above normal day temperatures that may intensify the melting of the already shrinking glaciers, a meteorological department official in Srinagar said.
That is not good news, given the essential role glaciers have in feeding the region’s water bodies.
Studies have long established that the Kolahoi glacier that feeds the Jhelum river – also known as the valley’s lifeline – has been receding rapidly. A study published in 2020 showed the glacier has lost 23% of its area since 1962 and has fragmented. This was because of the “increasing warming that has impacted the snow accumulation on the glacier”.
But this depletion is not restricted to Kolahoi glacier. In fact, Himalayan glaciers are the fastest shrinking in the world. Studies suggest that they may lose 75% of their ice by the end of the century. There are roughly 18,000 glaciers in Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.
Experts have attributed the present dry spell in Kashmir to global warming as a result of which the frequency and strength of so-called western disturbances hitting the region at this time of the year has been impacted. Western disturbances are weather systems that originate in the Mediterranean Sea and travel eastward, picking up moisture along the way and bringing rainfall to northwest India outside the country’s monsoon season. Kashmir’s winter climate, between October and May, is largely determined by this system.
According to a study, more than 70% of the annual precipitation in Jammu and Kashmir comes from these moisture-laden winds. As a result, this weather pattern is also responsible for 60% to 70% of the annual snow accumulation of glaciers in the northern region.
That is why Kashmir’s entire natural ecosystem is at stake.
Dr Mukhtar Ahmad, the director of the meteorological centre in Srinagar, also attributed the dry spell to the “strong El Niño weather phenomenon in central and eastern Pacific Ocean”.
A natural phenomenon, aggravated by climate change, El Niño refers to the warming of ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that affects the strength of monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent.
Kashmir is not unfamiliar to the havoc nature can unleash. Neither are its people unused to suffering.
That is why, when Kashmiris look up to the heavens, collectively to seek rain and relief, it means something larger is at stake.
(Safwat Zargar is a special correspondent for Scroll media. Courtesy: Scroll.in.)
