The regional parties have again a taken a centre stage in the politics of the country. The assumption that the BJP led by Narendra Modi may politically marginalise the regional forces has come under serious doubt after the results of Karnataka assembly polls and the bypolls across the country. They have demonstrated the re-emergence of regional parties. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah, who are virtually deciding everything in BJP, will try hard to neutralise the repercussions of this change. This can be done only by forcing the regional parties to remain limited to their own areas. Is it possible? Of course it is possible, but only if regional parties are prevented from getting national visibility.
For the BJP, this is not only necessary if it wishes to win 2019 polls, but also for getting to the throne if a hung parliament is the outcome of the Lok Sabha polls. Regional parties can only be prevented from performing a role at the national level if they do not get a truly national ally. It does not need any elaboration that the Congress is the only party in the country which can provide such an alliance. The corollary of such an assumption is that the Congress should not in position to do this.
If we give a closer look at the recent moves of Prime Minister Modi and BJP president Shah, we can have a glimpse of their strategy. They have started targeting the Congress and Rahul Gandhi individually to isolate them from regional parties. The accelerated pace with which the cases of corruption against Congress leaders like Chidambaram are being investigated also points to the same. It is not difficult to understand as to why the criminal case against senior leader Shashi Tharoor has now become a priority after a very long period.
The change has indeed come after party’s failure to install a non-Congress government in Karnataka. The Congress could blocked BJP’s way to power in the state with success. The event also generated a hope among regional parties that they could even capture power at the Centre if they join hands in opposing Modi and are able to prevent splitting of anti-BJP votes. The BJP is rightly apprehending the potential threat Rahul Gandhi is posing to the party’s prospect of reelection in 2019. That he can mobilise diverse political forces against the BJP is now a reality. The BJP was expecting a slow and timid response from Rahul-led Congress in Karnataka after its defeat as had been the case in Goa and Manipur. However, Rahul Gandhi acted with the required speed and stitched an alliance with the JDS without losing any time. This move changed the scenario in the State as well as at the national level. All the important regional formations came together to celebrate the installation of a non-BJP government. And this has given a loud and clear message of Opposition unity.
BJP has other reasons also for targeting Congress. It fits into the broad narrative that India has lost almost six decades under an ‘inept family rule’. It is also easy to hold Congress responsible for all that which India has failed to achieve in these decades. It helps Modi build up an image of a saviour who can give leadership to the country to make it a leading nation of the world. His campaign on completing four years in office is directed towards this end only. Addressing a rally at Cuttack in Odisha he alleged that all these years, the Congress has been pursuing a policy of “family first instead of country first.” Modi alleged, “During UPA regime, the Congress party was running the government through remote control. It only gave the slogan of ‘Garibi Hatao’ but did not serve the poor. Half of the population does not have gas, electricity or road connection.”
When it came to the poor health infrastructure in Odisha, he refrained from directly accusing the State government which is in power for over one and half decades, and held the UPA government responsible for it. Modi said, “The situation is worse here in Odisha. I wonder what were the previous governments doing? If the State governments do not carry out their responsibilities properly, the Centre does it.”
Odisha Chief Minister has been following a policy of equidistance from both the BJP and the Congress. He did not attend the oath-ceremony of H.D. Kumaraswamy as Chief Minister of Karnataka. The BJP had become ambitious in Odisha after getting an impressive vote share in the panchayat elections held in 2017. However, it soon realised that it would be premature to celebrate the success because the party had to face a drubbing in an assembly bypoll that was held soon after the panchayat polls.
In its campaign in Kairana and Noorpur bypolls in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP targeted the Congress and its politics despite the fact that the Congress had no candidate in any of these constituencies. In a public meeting near Kairana, Modi had targeted the Nehru-Gandhi family. This seems to be a part of the fresh campaign the Sangha Parivar has launched against the first prime minister of India, Jawaharlal Nehru. The same old allegations of purported disrespect to Sardar Patel and Subhash Bose are being made.
However, the results of these byelections show that personal attacks are not fetching votes. The weapon was used extensively in Gujarat and Karnataka also, but it failed to give the expected results.
In addition to attacking the Congress, the Modi-Shah duo is trying to tie up with regional parties to force Congress to go to the polls without allies. However, the party is hardly finding it easy. Most of the dominant regional parties have by now gone away from it. Even in the States where the Congress is in direct contest with the regional forces, the latter are considering the BJP to be a bigger threat. In these States, regional parties are not averse to some kind of arrangement with the Congress. There are not showing any inclination towards joining hands with the BJP. They consider the BJP as their main enemy.
The BJP is finding it difficult to retain existing allies as well. The TDP has left the National Democratic Alliance, while its other allies are also showing uneasiness. Its pre-poll allies in Bihar, the Lok Janshakti Party of Ramvilas Paswan and the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party of Upendra Kushwaha, are exhibiting discomfiture. The post-poll alliance with JDU is also showing strains. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has started attacking his partner. Once a supporter of demonetisation, Kumar has now become a critique of it. He is also unhappy with the amount sanctioned for the flood relief. The Chief Minister has also indicated that he might agitate for a Special Status for the state.
Tensions have been brewing in Uttat Pradesh as well. Smaller parties like Apana Dal are not happy. They are asking for more seats to contest and BJP is in no mood to oblige them. The BJP is also trying to bypass these parties by directly addressing the social segments they are representing. The BJP is contemplating a change in the reservation formula to provide separate reservation for the more backward classes within the quota for backward classes. The party had won many seats in 2014 with the support of other backward classes.
On the other hand, Congress has been winning allies. The regional parties are also restructuring their relations with each other. Till recently, an SP-BSP alliance was considered to be a most difficult proposition, but it is now a reality. The bypolls in Uttar Pradesh have proved the effectivity of this alliance as well.
If Congress’ open arm policy is giving sleepless nights to BJP leaders, the attack from opposition on issues like unemployment, price rise and farm distress is also causing discomfort to the ruling party. “The ruling party before coming to power made big promises such as employment to 2 crore youth every year, remunerative prices to farmers, bringing back black money stashed abroad, eradication of corruption, and so on and so forth. There were 42 big promises made but none of the promises has been fulfilled,” said senior leader Sharad Yadav who has just launched a new political party, the Loktantrik Janata Dal.
Weakening of federalism is the major cause of regional assertions. But this is hardly being recognised in the ruling political circle of New Delhi!
