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How Did the Muslim Vote?

Fuzail Ahmad Ayyubi

The general elections for the 18th Lok Sabha have reached their denouement. In a nail biting climax, Tuesday’s results have put to rest all speculations which were looming with the exit polls predicting from 350 to even 415 seats for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance and from as low as 96 to over 182 for the INDIA bloc parties.

However, the final figures have been astronomically far from all the exit polls and predictions of poll pundits such as Prashant Kishor. The INDIA bloc has not only been able to set up a united and cohesive opposition to the NDA but has also been successful in preventing the BJP from even attaining a majority by itself, let alone the much advertised target of 370 seats for the BJP.

While it is no doubt true that with the vigour of ‘UP ke ladke’, combined with the political acumen of leaders such as Sonia Gandhi, Mallikarjun Kharge, Lalu Prasad Yadav, Sharad Pawar, M.K. Stalin and Arvind Kejriwal, the INDIA bloc has scripted a history of its own kind in unmasking the bogey of the “strong” government as had been the bugle for the past two elections. However, another evident trend coming out from voting patterns of different constituencies is that the common voter’s faith in the constitution and the Indian democracy has not dwindled, especially the Muslim voter which has forever been blamed for voting on religious lines resulting in a divided ballot in multipolar contests.

This was perhaps the first election in that manner, since 1952, when the Indian Muslim has voted for saving the constitution as well as India’s democracy – and beyond religious affiliations.

In my home state of Uttar Pradesh, and as several news reports point out, tickets by INDIA bloc in many Muslim-majority constituencies were given to non-Muslim candidates keeping in mind the strategic needs of the respective constituencies and yet, the INDIA bloc has seen a consolidated support from the Muslim voters despite presence of Muslim candidates on the tickets of other parties such as the BSP, which previously has resulted in a split in Muslim votes. Samajwadi Party’s lead of over a lakh votes in seats like Moradabad where ST Hasan, the incumbent Lok Sabha MP was dropped at the last moment, has clearly not bothered the Muslim voter.

Why this voting pattern assumes importance is because historically the Indian Muslim – the third largest Muslim population in the world and more than 14% of India’s population – has been underrepresented in both houses of the parliament, but more so in the Lok Sabha. As Snigdhendu Bhattacharya points out for The Diplomat, proportionately speaking there ought to have been around 75 Muslim MPs in the parliament whereas the number of Muslim MPs in the past six elections had been 29 (1998), 32 (1999), 36 (2004), 30 (2009), 23 (2014), and 25 (2019). While Bhattacharya attributes twin reasons for this underrepresentation – not fielding enough Muslim candidates and divided ballot in multipolar contests – this election has, at the very least, seen the latter cause being eliminated even if at the altar of worsening the former. In other words, while Muslims would continue to be underrepresented in the Lok Sabha, the Muslim vote has seen a massive consolidation undeterred by the INDIA bloc dropping Muslim candidates in several constituencies.

The assembly elections, however, largely remain based on local issues while the Lok Sabha elections are a major platform for testing this consolidation which has evidently held positive results for the Indian Muslim this June 4. The Lok Sabha elections historically have seen the Muslim vote being divided by either multiple Muslim candidates or parties’ tendency of doling out religiously favourable phraseology and promises in their speeches. In Assam’s Dhubri Lok Sabha constituency, Rakibul Hussain – the INDIA candidate from the Congress – has won by around ten lakh votes against AIUDF’s Maulana Badruddin Ajmal, a leader whose party is based in the Muslim identity politics.

Three takeaways

The biggest takeaway therefore has to be the Muslim voter’s disapproval of such religious issues or Muslim faces in the fray. If time has taught the Muslim voter anything it is that brooding over issues of lesser Muslim candidates was not an option available when a larger effort for saving the constitution is being made. Any success of the INDIA bloc would in this manner have an undeniable role of Muslim voters casting their choice on positive lines in favour of the alliance and not for religious considerations whatsoever. Whether it be Moradabad or Dhubri, the Muslim voter has rallied behind the INDIA alliance and has not been distracted by other issues.

The second takeaway is that despite being the target of the Prime Minister’s public speeches, which referred to Muslims as those who have more children – a notion debunked by many – and facing continuous discrimination, the Muslim voter has voted in support of saving the Constitution and India’s democracy.

During this election, there have been moments when statements could have sparked hurt sentiments or protests. However, the Muslim voter has wisely ignored such provocations and remained largely non-reactive. Additionally, Muslim voters have moved beyond considerations of co-religionist candidates, voting en masse to uphold the idea of India and its democratic legacy. In doing so, they have played a crucial role in this democratic process, setting aside notions of divided voting patterns and religious biases.

The third, an extension of the two above, is the reason for such decisive and consolidated voting. While the undercurrent was set by events like the enactment of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 (CAA) and the ever-famous ‘chronology’ connecting it to the National Register of Citizens (NRC), which resulted in the Shaheen Bagh protests, the Muslim voter has taken a cue from the ongoing political events.

It is only natural that, with issues ranging from the CAA to the Uniform Civil Code enacted in Uttarakhand, the hijab issue in Karnataka, and the question of essential religious practices, all aimed at Muslims, they have no choice but to become more politically conscious. This voter awareness is on the rise, it is only going to increase in future elections. A community once seen as indifferent to affairs of the state has stood out in participating in the entire process of democracy. It has been the emerging pattern that Muslim-dominated areas have seen good turnouts, solidifying their trust in the democratic functioning of this country by voting as a more aware and conscientious stakeholder.

(Fuzail Ahmad Ayyubi is a Supreme Court Advocate-on-Record. Courtesy: The Wire, an Indian nonprofit news and opinion website. It was founded in 2015 by Siddharth Varadarajan, Sidharth Bhatia, and M. K. Venu.)

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‘A Little Less Suffocating’: Why Many Muslims View the Lok Sabha Verdict with Cautious Hope

Tabassum Barnagarwala & Rokibuz Zaman

For several days in June last year, Ayaz Shaikh could not go to his carpentry workshop as he ran from lawyers to police station to court, hoping to get his 17-year-old son out of trouble.

On June 6, his son was among five minors in Kolhapur detained by the police for sharing an Instagram post featuring pictures of 18th-century Mysore ruler Tipu Sultan – and subsequently sent to a remand home.

Mistaking Tipu Sultan for Mughal ruler Aurangzeb, Hindutva groups had accused the boys of hurting religious sentiments and insulting Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj, the 17th-century Maratha ruler revered in Maharashtra.

A mob had gathered outside Shaikh’s home and thrown stones, injuring another son while his elderly mother hid inside. Riots soon broke out in Kolhapur on June 7, 2023, damaging 80 vehicles and property worth Rs 7 lakh.

“After my son came out of juvenile home, we feared for his safety for months,” he said. Most rioters, said Shaikh, were residents from their neighbourhood. “This had never happened before,” said Shaikh. “And we hope it does not get repeat.”

When Shaikh went to vote on May 7, he resolved to support a political party that would ensure peace. He voted for Congress candidate Chhatrapati Shahu Shahaji, a descendent of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj.

In his campaigns, Shahaji told voters that he chose to enter active politics at the age of 76 “to protect the Constitution” and “to retain democracy”.

When the results came in on June 4, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party stopped short of a simple majority, its tally reduced from 303 seats to 240.

Shahaji won by a margin of 1.5 lakh votes, defeating a candidate of the Shiv Sena, which is a BJP ally.

The verdict came as a relief for several Muslim voters, who have faced the brunt of demolitions, hateful speech and discrimination in the last decade. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s divisive speeches throughout the election campaign had targeted Muslims, referring to them as “infiltrators” and “those who have more children”.

“People are fed up with riots, with inflation,” said Shaikh. “The results show that one party cannot continue to dominate.”

But for many Muslim voters who spoke to Scroll, the hope for an end to the politics of hate is tempered with caution.

‘People have resisted’

Saidur Rahman Mullah, a 40-year-old pharmacist in a remote village in Western Assam’s Dhubri, is hopeful that the results will rein in the BJP, which he said had “dehumanised the Muslims” in the state.

“The BJP is targeting Muslims, evicting them from their homes, arresting and putting them in jail for child marriages,” he said.

Mullah said madrassas were shut and masjids were demolished. “But the results show that one cannot rule a country with such hate and prejudice.” Mullah’s own shop was demolished six months ago by the Dhubri administration.

Mullah is most optimistic about the Congress’s performance. But he felt that Muslims of Bengali-origin will continue to be under siege unless there is a change in the government in Assam. Since 2021, Assam’s Himanta Biswa Sarma-led administration has been openly targeted Muslims in the state, especially those of Bengali origin.

“Perhaps, if Congress manages to form a government in Delhi, it can return to power in Assam too in 2026,” said Mullah.

In Uttar Pradesh’s Saharanpur, 38-year-old Mohammed Salim said the verdict will force the BJP to soften its stance against Muslims. “Pehle akramak the. Earlier they were in attack mode,” he said. “Now even if the NDA forms a government, police atrocities will be reduced. The administration will not do as it pleases.”

Salim took hope in the representation of Muslims in Parliament. In the Saharanpur constituency, where Salim voted, Imran Masood from the Congress won by a margin of over 64,000 votes, taking the total number of Muslim parliamentarians to 24, which is still lower than the 26 elected in 2019.

Shaheed Ahmed, a 29-year-old Barpeta-based legal researcher, said that the resurgence of the Opposition had made him hopeful about democracy.

“Despite the Election Commission trying its best to favour the ruling party, people have resisted and fought for democracy,” Ahmed said. The Congress should represent and speak for the people so that they can breathe, he said.

‘Not a defeat of communalism’

Several other voters were reluctant to read too much into the verdict.

In Mumbai, 24-year-old law student Umair Alware said the results are “not a defeat of communalism”. It will still take time to change the communal mindset and how the majority community perceives Muslims in India, said Alware. “BJP has not lost,” said Alware. “They only have fewer seats than the last term.” Voters who had drained their savings during the Covid-19 pandemic had sent the ruling party a message, he said.

Alware, however, was relieved that the BJP’s inability to secure an absolute majority could push back the party’s agenda of introducing a uniform civil code, implementing simultaneous state and general elections, and creating a National Register of Citizens.

Ashiqua Ahmed, a resident of Bongaigoan district, however, counted the losses of the past decade. “I have felt more isolated and helpless each day for the last 10 years because of the increasing hate against Muslims, communal speeches and the indifference of most people to that,” she said. “I still believe we have a long way to go and it’s too early to rejoice maybe, but at least it feels a little less suffocating.”

(The authors are reporters at Scroll.in. Courtesy: Scroll.in, an Indian digital news publication, whose english edition is edited by Naresh Fernandes.)