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What is the 4T in Mexico? MORENA’s Project Under Debate

Pablo Meriguet

The Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research published its Dossier No. 22, entitled “Mexico and the Fourth Transformation”, in which it evaluates the changes undertaken by the governments of the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA), the ruling party. To this end, they position the governments of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO, 2018-2024) and Claudia Sheinbaum (2024 to date), the current president, as part of a legacy of historical transformations in the Mesoamerican country.

The three transformations before MORENA

The dossier states that the first great Mexican transformation took place during the period of independence from Spain (1810-1821), when a “war of the masses” rose up against the social and political order imposed by the Spanish Crown. Independence thus left ideas such as “Mexican greatness” and the notion of a “tireless people with great ancestors” in the country’s historical memory.

The second major transformation was the War of Reform (1858-1861), in which liberals and conservatives fought each other in bloody battles, resulting in the creation of a liberal and federalist state, even against certain interests of the clergy and in favor of a nascent bourgeoisie. During this period, several imperialist invasions took place in the country: France invaded Mexico in 1838 and, years later, between 1861 and 1867; the United States seized half of Mexican territory in 1846. These invasions generated a shared nationalist sentiment, thus developing a sovereign and anti-monarchist national consciousness.

The Mexican Revolution (1910-1917) was, according to the text, the third great transformation. In it, popular and other sectors from northern and southern Mexico united to restructure the country. However, thanks to the support of the United States and other factors, the more moderate wing of the Revolution, led by Venustiano Carranza, triumphed over the more radical positions that advocated a deeper popular revolution. Although many of the demands of the popular sectors were incorporated into the 1917 constitution, a system of caudillos supporting the “Jefe Máximo” (Supreme Leader) was established in Mexico.

A complicated interstice

Thus, the study recounts how MORENA’s project is assumed to be the historical continuation of these processes. This self-conception of inheriting the most radical struggles in Mexican history is also based on a political commitment to legitimize its state project. In this way, the analysis explores a sort of genealogy of social and political activists, ranging from Father Hidalgo to Emiliano Zapata and Lázaro Cárdenas, and finally to the leaders of 21st-century Mexican reformism.

The dossier describes a watershed moment in the 20th century, when the country was controlled by the Mexican oligarchy, in the form of the government of Lázaro Cárdenas (1934-1940), who, according to the study, built the first left-wing government in Mexico’s history with projects such as agrarian reform, oil expropriation, the welfare state, etc. This project was betrayed by an authoritarian program carried out by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which repressed socialist forces and social movements from 1940 onwards.

The publication argues that the armed path pursued by various political sectors of the left was abandoned in favor of an electoral path. However, other electoral projects, such as the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), were unable to offer an alternative to the PRI’s control of the state due to internal divisions. Thus, MORENA emerged as the only viable and nationwide alternative to challenge the establishment’s control of the state at the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st.

MORENA and the 4T

The fourth transformation (4T), the dossier asserts, would bring together a series of anti-neoliberal and democratic struggles that took place in Mexico between 1989 and 2018, ranging from the Zapatista uprising of 1994 to the student movement of 2012, to the movement demanding the truth about the disappearance of the 43 students from Ayotzinapa in 2014.

AMLO thus became a benchmark for progressive political alternatives, even though the publication itself acknowledges that he was often not personally involved in such social and political struggles. In any case, the study considers AMLO’s victory in 2018 a part of a “popular, plebeian, and nationalist” project.

Despite AMLO’s anti-neoliberal aspirations, there is no doubt that the country is still tied to “economic conditions that reproduce neoliberalism,” the text underscores. These conditions were developed over several decades in which the state abandoned its traditional participation in the economy. Since the 1980s, Mexico has been committed to trade liberalization and tariff reduction, which will materialize with the approval of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The privatization of public companies, tax reforms, and the reduction of public spending marked the state agenda.

Thus, the document clarifies, the role of Obradorism (a tendency related to AMLO) as a project of modifications, but not of radical economic transformations:

“In López Obrador’s discourse, neoliberalism is framed as a grand scheme of corruption and systematic impoverishment that benefitted only a small portion of the population. While this view may oversimplify a more complex reality, it aligns with the widely held perception that the reforms of the neoliberal period were an abuse of power by the ruling classes and that they unfairly and disproportionately benefitted those with access to power…The discourse on corruption has therefore resonated deeply with the majority of the population, who view the 4T as a bulwark against these abuses despite the absence of substantial changes to neoliberal economic policy.”

MORENA’s transformations

The report also highlights the specific changes made by MORENA governments: tax collection, nationalization of lithium, wage increases, recovery of energy sovereignty (especially in PEMEX, the national oil company), increased hydrocarbon production, construction of refineries, energy reform, etc.

In this regard, MORENA President Héctor Díaz Polanco stated: “[Morena] construct[ed] a new common sense, which included the fundamental task of demystifying everything that the triumphant, prevailing neoliberalism meant for the country. That was the structure that had to be defeated, which meant a very clear rejection of the idea that the market could solve society’s problems. To recall the classic idea that the market can regulate itself, we began from the premise that the market cannot regulate itself and that all the country’s problems stemmed from that initial idea.”

On the fight against neoliberalism, renowned historian Armando Bartra, a member of MORENA, clarifies: “When you come to power as part of the progressive left and you come from a process of exclusionary and impoverishing neoliberalism, you have a job, and that job is to reduce poverty. They are not telling you to build socialism. They are not telling you to break with capitalism. They are telling you to reduce poverty and restore hope. We want to live better, not worse – we want our children to have a better life with us. We want that and, moreover, we elected you for that.”

The governments of the Fourth Transformation have managed to lift 11 million people out of poverty through public investment, the implementation of social programs, and an increase in minimum wages (by almost 241%). On the other hand, the dossier affirms that, in accordance with the political pragmatism previously mentioned by Bartra, which has also been criticized both inside and outside Mexico, it is essential to take precautions with regard to the treaties signed with the United States, both economic and security-related.

Thus, according to the compilation, the latent contradictions and advances against neoliberalism are part of a positive balance: “The 4T’s record with respect to its central objective – overcoming neoliberalism and the inequalities it produced – is positive despite the contradictions that remain. Beyond what has been achieved in terms of constitutional reforms, the ideological battle against neoliberalism has been consistent and forceful, paving the way for deeper transformations in the future.”

A new hegemony?

The debate over whether MORENA’s so-called “Mexican humanism” is radical or not is not closed – a key point in the analysis – although a kind of national consensus necessary for the victory of the López Obrador and Sheinbaum governments has been established.

The dossier compiled interviews with prominent intellectuals, which reveal a recognition of internal tensions within the political project: “Paco Ignacio Taibo II, a writer, political activist, and the director of the Economic Culture Fund (Fondo de Cultura Económica), told us that Morena faces a contradiction: its openness, while necessary to gain electoral strength, also enabled the inclusion of former PRI members and others with varying ideological affinities to the transformation project, generating internal tensions within its political structure.

Morena seeks to build a left-leaning political project. Yet its internal diversity reflects a broad ideological spectrum, in part due to opportunistic affiliations that followed its consolidation as a dominant political force after coming to power. For the academic Diana Fuentes, this is not so much a result of Morena’s current weaknesses but rather stems from more than a century of Mexican political culture, marked by corporatism and caudillismo.”

The Tricontinental publication, despite everything, assumes that hegemony has indeed been achieved, at least in terms of the electoral contest and control over the public agenda, which can be problematic if we consider Gramsci’s definition of hegemony, which goes beyond the electoral and ideological dimensions: “The hegemony that Morena has built is evident in its overwhelming electoral victories, in its capacity to set the terms of national political debate, and in the absence of any real opposition from the right or any criticism or challenge to its project from the left. It is clear that the mass and triumphant character of the 4T has subsumed other left currents, which today remain marginal in both political and discursive terms.”

In this way, the investigation attempts to show that the 4T is a complex, multidimensional project that faces profound internal and external tensions. A simple categorization of a project such as MORENA’s would generate unreliable conclusions.

4T stands out as an undeniably unique process in many ways, and a continuation in others. Its history is still unfolding, and if we follow the history of Mexico, it will surely establish itself as a political force that will shape Mexican politics for several generations, even if we cannot yet neatly define the direction of its journey.

[Pablo Meriguet is a writer for Peoples Dispatch. Courtesy: Peoples Dispatch, an international media organization with the mission of highlighting voices from people’s movements and organizations across the globe.]

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How Mexico Lifted 13.4m Out of Poverty in 6 Years

Tallis Boerne Marcus

Mexico recorded a historic drop in poverty over the six-year presidency of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO). In six years – a period that included a global pandemic and a massive effort to overhaul 89 years of right-wing governance – the administration of AMLO and the Morena party saw 13.4 million Mexicans leave poverty behind, and an additional two million lifted from extreme poverty.

This figure refers to multidimensional poverty, which also considers access to services. When considering poverty only as far as it relates to salaries, 15.8 million Mexicans exited poverty during the six year administration of AMLO and Morena. Extreme poverty in the country is now at its lowest level in history.

The development is a historic achievement for the Morena government, despite the party being largely discredited by major English-speaking media.

Over a year ago, The Guardian reported that “AMLO promised to transform Mexico, but he leaves it much the same”. However, they have now walked back on that reporting, noting the historic poverty reduction of 13.4 million people.

The New York Times reported in 2022 that “Mexico’s leader says poverty is his priority. But his policies hurt the poor”.

The article criticized the government’s decision to overhaul “Prospera”, Mexico’s previous social welfare program, which was praised by The World Bank. Prospera, previously under the name Progresa, ran from 1997 to 2018.

While the program was part of Mexico’s recovery from the Mexican Peso Crisis, which included an IMF bailout, conditional on certain austerity policies and meeting free-trade agreement stipulations, it was largely unsuccessful in reducing poverty in Mexico.

In the 12 years leading up to AMLO’s six-year presidency, the poverty rate in Mexico only moved slightly from 42.9% to 41.9%. Now, after the sexenio of AMLO and Morena, the poverty rate stands at 29.6%.

How did the government reduce poverty?

While a defining characteristic of the Morena government until now has been a range of social programs, the majority of poverty reduction can be traced to raises in the minimum wage, which created overall increases in household income.

Between 70 and 73% of Mexico’s poverty reduction is owed to an increase in labor income.

In 2018, Mexico’s minimum daily wage was 88.36 pesos (USD 4.70) in most areas of the country, the lowest in Latin America. Now it’s 278.80 pesos per day (USD 14.9), a figure more than three times higher. Mexico maintains a higher minimum wage in some northern states near the US border, where the cost of living is even more competitive.

These changes represent an overall increase of 135% purchasing power, when considering inflation.

To illustrate the significance of these changes: Over AMLO’s six-year term (2018-2024), the amount that Mexican families spend per month accessing health services increased about 157 pesos, however, the minimum wage over that same period increased by 4,800 pesos per month.

Furthermore, it is now constitutionally decreed that the minimum wage must rise above the rate of inflation. By 2026 the government is aiming for the minimum wage to be 9450 pesos per month, or 314.60 pesos per day.

Sheinbaum has stated that her aims regarding minimum wage relate to how many baskets of basic goods can be purchased. Her aim by 2026 is that the minimum wage will be worth two baskets of basic goods by 2026, and worth two-and-a-half baskets of basic goods by 2030.

A common critique of Mexico’s minimum wage spending is that a large percentage of Mexicans still work in the informal economy, and therefore don’t benefit from minimum wage raises. It is true that most Mexicans work in the informal economy, based on the start of 2025, 54.3% of Mexicans work in the informal economy. This is only a modest decrease from the 56.5% rate of informal employment that was registered at the end of 2018, when AMLO came to power.

However, boosting the purchasing power of families benefits the informal economy as well. But the bigger challenge for Claudia Sheinbaum and the Morena government going forward is moving more workers into the formal economy.

Efforts have been made towards this goal, such as a new labor reform that offers workers rights to those employed through digital applications, such as Uber or Didi. The government registered 1.2 million new formal workers after this reform.

The government also runs a social program, “Youth Building the Future”, which offers a monthly salary and medical insurance to people between the ages 18 and 29 that aren’t working or studying, and places them into businesses and workplaces for work experience and training. The program is currently being delivered to 2.3 million Mexicans, and 62% of program graduates are finding permanent work.

However, until now, the government hasn’t had major success in formalizing the economy.

Social programs in general have also contributed greatly to Mexico’s poverty reduction. Other programs include the universal pensions for all men over 65 years old and women over 60 years old, house-to-house free healthcare for elderly and vulnerable citizens, universal scholarships for all public school students, cash transfers to people with disabilities, cash transfers to working single mothers, transfers to farmers for planting trees, financial credit to medium and small agricultural producers, and more.

The Morena government has been constitutionally entrenching these social programs to ensure they continue into the future, and they are consistently mentioned by voters as a key reason for supporting Morena.

A remaining challenge for the Sheinbaum administration is to ensure these programs can reach Mexico’s most vulnerable citizens, who often live in rural areas with little access to services.

Reducing inequality

Mexico’s reduction in poverty hasn’t come at a time of significant economic growth. Economic growth has been modest since 2018, which included a massive pandemic-induced 8.35% drop in GDP in 2020. Rather than poverty reduction stemming from economic growth, it has been achieved through a redistribution of resources.

While Mexico remains a highly unequal country, where the 10% of richest households earn 14 times that of the poorest 10%, this figure used to be the richest earning 21 times the poorest, as recently as 2016. During the administration of Felipe Calderon, between 2006 and 2012, this figure was a staggering 35 times disparity between the richest and poorest 10% of households.

Between 2016 and 2024, all Mexican households saw an increase in their distribution of national income, except the richest 10%, who saw a 6.1% decrease, demonstrating the redistribution of income.

While tax collection has been increasing, many Mexican political commentators believe a fiscal reform, that places more taxes on the rich, will be required to greatly shift the inequality present in Mexico.

Despite some advances, poverty also remains exceptionally higher in the south of Mexico when compared to the north, which is another key problem that Sheinbaum and Morena will have to tackle.

The current climate for Mexico

The government of Morena remains in a very strong position, with Sheinbaum’s approval ratings generally hovering between 70% and 80%. The economy continues growing and the country is receiving record direct foreign investment.

However, US tariffs are providing a constant threat to the economy, with the potential to provoke a major recession, and the threat of tariffs alone leading to uncertainty for investment. Mexico has been shoring up relations with countries such as Brazil and Canada, but tariffs still represent a major risk to Mexico, whose economy is largely entwined with the US.

By far the biggest threat to Mexico remains that of unilateral military action, with the Trump administration creating fears of military intervention in Mexico. The US claims this would be to combat drug cartels.

However, as Claudia Sheinbaum recently stated, using US data, 80% of fentanyl traffickers are from the US and 74% of guns in Mexico come from the US.

[Tallis Boerne Marcus is an Australian journalist currently based in Mexico City. Courtesy: Peoples Dispatch, an international media organization with the mission of highlighting voices from people’s movements and organizations across the globe.]