Latest Data Reveals ‘Unprecedented’ Increase in Global Warming

Courtesy: Climate and Capitalism

Annual (thin line) and decadal (thick line) change in mean global surface temperature, compared to 1850-1900 average. Source: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022.

Human-caused global warming has continued to increase at an “unprecedented rate” since the last report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

That’s a key finding of the Indicators of Global Climate Change Project, which aims to fill the “information gap,” between IPCC reports, which are published every six years or so and are often criticized for being out of date.

Initiated by climate scientists at the University of Leeds, the project will publish “up-to-date estimates of policy-relevant global climate indicators that follow the causal chain from emissions to warming, including greenhouse gas emissions, human induced warming and the remaining global carbon budget.” For consistency, the project uses the same indicators and definitions as the IPCC.

Some fifty climate scientists from around the world contributed to the project’s first “annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence,” published on June 8 in the peer-reviewed journal Earth System Science Data.

Among the updated indicators:

• Between 2013 and 2022, global warming averaged of 1.14°C above pre-industrial levels. This is up from 1.07°C between 2010 and 2019.
• Human-induced warming is now increasing by more than 0.2°C per decade.
• Increased temperatures are driving “an intensification of many weather and climate extremes, particularly more frequent and more intense hot extremes, and heavy precipitation across most regions of the world.”
• Between 2012 and 2021, greenhouse gas emissions were at an all-time high, adding the equivalent 54 billion metric tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere every year. That’s about 1,700 tonnes every second.
• The Earth’s “carbon budget” — the emissions that can be released to have a 50% chance of keeping global temperature rise under 1.5°C — is shrinking fast. In 2020, the IPCC calculated the remaining budget at 500 gigatons of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. It is now about 250 gigatons.
• Improving the odds to 66% or 80% would cut the budget to 150 gigatons and 100 gigatons, which at present rates will be exhausted in less than three years.

Key Indicators: Changes since the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) was published in 2021 and 2022. Source: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022.

(Climate & Capitalism is an ecosocialist journal, edited by Ian Angus.)

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Monster Heat Hits 1/3rd of World Population

Robert Hunziker

It has started, and it’s fierce… Monster Heat!

“It’s a ‘monster heat spell like none before,” according to climatologist and weather historian Maximiliano Herrera, describing Asia’s heatwave as the worst in history. (Source: ‘Extreme Heat Scorches Asia, Affecting at Least a Third of the World’s Population’, The Verge, April 19, 2023)

Global warming is hitting full stride as SE Asia, inclusive of parts of China and India literally roast. It’s a bad omen for the rest of the world as the entire planet is threatened by an emerging El Niño event starting this year.

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern oscillation that originates in the equatorial Pacific every few years, bringing on more heat throughout the planet. According to euronews.com/green, El Niño is forecast to return in 2023 and could set new temperature records.

Hundreds of weather stations across China broke April heat records. Is a new rapid-rising temperature trend in place because of global warming? It sure looks that way. For example, last year both China and India experienced severe heatwaves, shuttering factories, but it happened under the influence of La Niña, which is the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern oscillation, hmm. China sweltered under a devastating 70 days of intense heat that the country had never experienced before. “There is nothing in world climatic history which is even minimally comparable to what happened in China last year.” (Ibid.) This year (2023) is already similar, if not worse.

“This year’s record heat in Thailand, China and South Asia is a clear climate trend and will cause public health challenges for years to come,” according to scientist Fahad Saeed, regional lead for the climate policy institute, Climate Analytics. (Source: ‘Hot and Hotter: Swaths of Asia Sweat in Heat Wave’, The Japan Times, April 20, 2023)

Can Europe at +2.2C Above Pre-Industrial Withstand a Repeat of 2022?

According to Copernicia Climate Change Service (C3S), “Europe is warming around twice as quickly as the world average at 2.2 degrees Celsius over the past five years compared to the pre-industrial era.” (Source: ‘Fast-warming Europe Risks More Droughts as Alps Glaciers Melt at Record Rate’, France24.com, April 20, 2023)

The world’s leaders must hit the panic button now by organizing a worldwide Marshall Plan for tackling the global warming monster. Just image a year that’s worse for Europe than what happened in 2022: (1) at least 20,000 heat-related deaths (2) heat-related crashes of computer systems at two major London Hospitals (3) train tracks and roads buckled (4) some airport runways melted (5) Alpine glaciers, sources for major commercial rivers, melted at record rates (6) drinking water trucked to more than 100 towns in France (7) commercial supply issues as waterways shrunk passage for barges (8) France’s Loire River could be crossed on foot (9) high river temps restricted power plant production (10) reservoirs dangerously low – Portugal, Spain, France, and Italy (11) major crop deficits of 10-20%; livestock culls under consideration (12) wildfires three times the average (13) heatwaves more frequent and more intense, i.e., serious heatwaves in 2003, 2010, 2015, 2018, 2019, 2022, almost every year now , turning the European continent into a “hotspot” (14) extremely dry soils across the whole of Europe. (Source: ‘This Summer has Been a Glimpse into Europe’s Hot, Dry Future’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September 5, 2022)

“The 2022 European heat waves were exceptional in magnitude and duration and would have been highly unlikely without human-caused climate change. Still, with further warming inevitable as long as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, in less than a couple of decades, the 2022 summer might become the norm. That Europe, one of the most developed regions on the planet, is already struggling to withstand today’s extreme summer climate, should raise a glaring red flag—that the time for mitigating emissions and adapting to climate change is now or never.” (Ibid.)

Some years ago the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists incorporated climate change into their network of risks to civilization. A red flag, especially a “glaring red flag” should be hanging from the capitol of every country. World leaders should be shaking in their boots. Not only is the climate system literally squealing as if its leg is caught in a steel trap, but it is happening for all to see right before the world’s eyes. How much worse does it have to get before the red flag is hoisted? Honestly, what does it take?

Meanwhile, some of the world’s most astute climate scientists believe double-trouble is lurking right around the corner, e.g., “Recent evidence shows human fossil fuel emissions are still rising and will not likely plateau until the end of this decade, a far cry from the “carbon law,” which requires halving emissions by 2030 to keep warming to under a 2-degree Celsius trajectory. Current analysis suggests the world is heading to around 3 degrees Celsius of warming, or perhaps 3.5 degrees Celsius in a plausible high-end trajectory… moreover, we are making a big mistake when we think we can ‘park’ the Earth System at any given temperature rise – say 2°C- and expect it to stay there.” (Source: David Spratt, ‘Faster Than Forecast, Climate Impacts Trigger Tipping Points in the Earth System’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, April 19, 2023)

The Spratt article should be required reading for anyone concerned about the outlook for the planet’s climate system. It’s a fresh realistic analysis that doesn’t pull punches and a sobering read.

Meanwhile, the iconic Doomsday Clock is set at its most dangerous level of all-time at 90 seconds to midnight, the closest to global catastrophe it has ever been. In addition to the threats posed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, “Not only did weather extremes continue to plague diverse parts of the globe, but they were more evidently attributable to climate change. Countries of West Africa experienced floods that were among the most lethal in their histories, owing to a rainfall event that was assessed to be 80 times more likely because of climate change. Extreme temperatures in Central Europe North America, China, and other regions of the Northern Hemisphere this past summer led to water shortages and soil drought conditions that led in turn to poor harvests, further undermining food security at a time when the Ukraine conflict has already driven food price increases.” (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists)

Tackling Global Warming

According to Harvard Business Review, ‘Why People Aren’t Motivated to Address Climate Change’, October 11, 2018: Climate change involves a combination of factors that make it hard for people to get motivated. For starters, tackling climate change represents a trade-off between short-term and long-term benefits, which is the hardest trade-off for people to make. Decades of studies confirm that people overvalue short-term benefits. Ignoring climate change allows people to live life without concern for a carbon footprint and companies can manufacture cheaper without global warming concerns.

Also, climate change is nonlinear, yet people are really good at making judgements on linear trends but fail with nonlinear. And many effects of climate change are distant from most people. Who in NYC experiences crumbling permafrost in Siberia?

Finally, skepticism about global warming is easily aroused in the public mindset, after all, doesn’t the climate always change? But what skeptics refuse to address is “rate of change.” Yes, climate always changes but today’s rate of change is off-the-charts at 10-to-100 times faster than paleoclimate studies show throughout climate history. Image riding a Ferris wheel at ten times normal speed. The lap bar won’t hold for long! How about 100 times?

(Robert Hunziker is a freelance writer and environmental journalist from Los Angeles. Courtesy: CounterPunch.)

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The Arctic’s Iceless Upheaval

Robert Hunziker

Anybody who closely follows global warming knows that the Arctic has been clobbered 2-3 times beyond the impact on the planet. And knowledgeable sources also know that what happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic. After all, for millennia Arctic ice steadfastly served as the planet’s numero uno biggest reflector of solar radiation by reflecting 80%-90% of sunlight back to outer space.

But what if the ice is gone?

Where does all the heat go?

It’s a problem that threatens life as we know it. Alongside nuclear war, it’s one of the bigger threats to civilization since back in time when humans huddled together around smoldering fires in damp, darkened caves.

Based upon scientific studies, including the fact that the following are already in motion, the impact of an iceless Arctic: (1) Disruption of the jet streams in the troposphere at 20,000-30,000 feet which, in turn, throws off normal weather patterns throughout the Northern Hemisphere, as the steady westerlies don’t know which way is up or down or stalled, causing flash floods, torrential rains, scorching droughts, and brutal cold snaps seldom witnessed before, bringing forth unpredictable conditions with extreme cycles that whiplash society, e.g. last year’s 2022-primer for 2023-24 (2) Amplifies Greenland’s disintegration, which is already showing signs of considerable weakness and frailty as 24 feet of sea level rise remains tenuously trapped in ice. Scientists, such as Dr. Jason Box, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, have already put Greenland on special alert status (3) Accelerated melting of permafrost across Siberia, Alaska and Canada where thermokarst lakes by the thousands, yes, by the thousands, are popping up almost overnight, spewing methane bubbles, according to Dr. Katey Walter Anthony, Aquatic Ecosystem Ecologist and professor, University of Alaska. Alas, methane is much more powerful at stimulating global warming than CO2.

Unfortunately, an iceless Arctic is totally misunderstood by people in leadership roles. There are many naïve leaders when it comes to the science and the consequential impact of an iceless Arctic, like former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (Looking North: Sharpening America’s Arctic Focus’: speech, Rovaniemi, Finland, May 2019) celebrating the prospects of an iceless Arctic. Likewise, Vladimir Putin, launching the super-powerful nuclear icebreaker “Rossiya” in May 2022, as well as a floating nuclear power plant. (But the thick ice is mostly gone. And honestly, nuclear in the Arctic… Really?) They visualize dancing sugarplums of new fossil fuel discoveries, easier trade routes, and control over the Far Northern latitudes overshadowing North America and Asia and Europe.

Yet, it’s nearly preordained that an iceless Arctic means an enormously challenging, maybe fatal, set of circumstances for Russia, for America, and for the world. The science is at odds with fossil fuel discovery in the Arctic. Quite the opposite is required in order to save Russia and America from stepping on their own toes. The Arctic needs to be revived, not explored for minerals and oil. Revival may be possible. In fact, a group of scientists have an ongoing effort to do just that.

Titanic Lifeboat Academy recently published an article by Dr. Guy McPherson, professor emeritus University of Arizona, explaining the scholarship/science of an iceless Arctic: On the Rate of Environmental Change, Titanic Lifeboat Academy, January 27, 2023.

The following is a partial synopsis of Dr. Guy McPhersons’ insightful analysis, with additional separate commentary:

For perspective, it’s important to recognize the fact that “Humans have only ever lived in a world topped by ice.” (Source: Mark C. Urban, ‘Life Without Ice’, Science, February 14, 2020). According to Dr. Urban, biologist & professor of ecology/evolutionary biology, University of Connecticut: The human species evolved in an icy world that determined “climatic, ecological, and political stability.” That innate stability, taken for granted, is at risk for the first time ever: “By reflecting sunlight, Arctic ice acts as Earth’s air conditioner. Once dark water replaces brilliant ice, Earth could warm substantially, equivalent to the warming triggered by the additional release of a trillion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The ice also determines who gets rain. Loss of Arctic sea ice can make it rain in Spain, dry out Scandinavian hydropower, and set California ablaze.”

Dr. Urban believes the Arctic could become ice-free within 30 years and possibly sooner if current trends continue. His statement that ice-free warming could produce a trillion tons of carbon dioxide-equivalent is mouth-dropping; that’s equivalent to 25 years of current emissions, something that nobody has ever experienced nor can possibly imagine. There’s nothing positive about this, absolutely nothing. In fact, a trillion tons of CO2 is so enormous that it leaves the mind spinning forever, no possible exit.

As further stated by Dr. McPherson, there are name-recognition scientists that believe the Arctic will be ice-free very, very soon, as early as 2023. Harvard University professor of atmospheric science James Anderson was quoted in Forbes in 2018: “The chance there will be permanent ice in the Arctic after 2022 is essentially zero.” Professor Jennifer MacKinnon, University of California-San Diego and Scripps Institution was quoted by CBS News in 2021 as expecting an ice-free Arctic this year, 2023. According to Dr. McPherson: September 2023 is the likely date for an ice-free Arctic. “Then we can expect the full effects next year (2024).” For a detailed analysis of the Arctic, see: A Farewell To Ice (Oxford University Press) by one of the world’s leading experts on polar ice, Peter Wadhams.

There are several schools of thought on timing of an ice-less Arctic. Some believe an ice-free Arctic will not occur until 2030s (NOAA) or 2065 (Carbon Brief, assuming 1.5C is held, but good luck with that) or 2035 (a National Geographic Arctic article) or a Nature article claims the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century.

Only recently, coincident with the start of the U.N. Climate Summit at el-Sbeikh, Egypt COP27 in November 2022, the International Cryosphere Climate initiative research network provided new research on the Arctic: “Following the planet’s eight warmest years on record there is growing evidence that the world’s icy regions are melting at increasing rates – and far faster than scientists had expected.” (Source: ‘COP27: Loss of Arctic Summer Sea Ice ‘Inevitable Within 30 Years – Report’, Reuters, November 2022)

“Just as there’s no longer a credible path to keeping warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, there’s no credible path to avoiding an ice-free summer,” said co-author Robbie Mallett, a sea ice researcher at University College London… “A distinct environment on Earth is going to go extinct,” said Mallett.” (Ibid.)

The advocates of fossil fuels, like Pompeo and Putin, are thrilled about an ice-less Arctic. But in all seriousness, Putin is wasting a few billion rubles with a super-powerful nuclear icebreaker. Get serious… polar bears are struggling to find stable ice footing. Meanwhile, and most regrettably, scientists claim Pompeo’s and Putin’s greatest wishes are on the docket, an ice-less Arctic… but when?

Therefore, what happens if Drs. Urban, Anderson, and MacKinnon are right, meaning an iceless Arctic within the next 24 months?

For starters, the planet’s biggest air conditioner will be gone, and according to Dr. Urban: “By reflecting sunlight, Arctic ice acts as Earth’s air conditioner. Once dark water replaces brilliant ice, Earth could warm substantially, equivalent to the warming triggered by the additional release of a trillion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.”

In other words, the world will almost certainly turn more topsy-turvy than it was last year 2022 when major hydropower around the world creaked (Lake Powell) and major commercial waterways (Rhine, Po, Mississippi) nearly dried out as France and Italy delivered drinking water in trucks to hordes of thirsty citizens, and California was ablaze. And so much more, floods beyond belief (Pakistan, China). All of which happened before the Arctic turns ice-less, which will trigger ever more upheaval.

On the docket, there’s a trigger mechanism for much more rapid loss of Arctic sea ice looming in the wings, ready for attack. It is El Niño, which sounds innocent enough until it’s examined in more detail. Indeed, it’s a wolf in sheepskin.

The threat of El Niño: As the amount of latent heat contained in the oceans, which absorbs 80%-90% of the world’s heat, combines with the end of the current La Niña, a cooling trend at the equatorial Pacific Ocean (which served to cool the hottest year in 2022- didn’t help much, hmm) transitions into El Niño, the waters of the equatorial Pacific turn much warmer with extensive global impact. This combination will heat everything beyond comfort zones, especially in the Far North Arctic. What’s left of sea ice could disappear fast, faster than ever before, meaning the trio Urban, Anderson, and MacKinnon could “nail it.” This could result in a super cycle of crazed weather throughout the world getting even crazier with scorching bouts of drought followed by Noah’s Ark flooding, followed by city-flattening hurricanes followed by who-knows-what’s next, insanely deadly weather that leaves humanity breathless.

Hopefully, scientists are wrong about the timing of an iceless Arctic and it comes at a much later time. But science has been behind the Eightball on global warming issues for decades, always late to the party. Assuming Urban, Anderson, and MacKinnon nail it, then what will Pompeo (probable presidential candidate) and Putin (president for life sitting on a rusty nuclear icebreaker) recommend?

But more importantly, the ghost question: Why aren’t major countries throwing everything they’ve got at the biggest fixit in world history by flooding scientists with whatever funds and technical help necessary to figure out how to revive the Arctic, see: Refreeze the Arctic d/d December 9, 2022. After all, it may be possible. Otherwise, it’s only a matter of time before a trillion tons of CO2 hits. According to Statistica, global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry hit a record annual high of 37.12 billion metric tons in 2021.

How about another trillion (1,000,000,000,000) tons?

(Robert Hunziker is a freelance writer and environmental journalist from Los Angeles. Courtesy: CounterPunch.)